Det har gått ett knappt halvår år sedan jag skrev om bostadspriserna (i Malmö) sist så nu är det dags att ta en titt igen. Se Ska vi tro på fastighetsmäklarna? - Del I-V.
Denna gång hittade jag ungefär 1300 lägenheter till salu i Malmö (1500 i sept 2011). Av dessa hade ungefär 150 (175 i sept 2011) någon gång under den tid de legat ute fått se sitt pris sänkt och 10 (10 i sept 2011) fått se sitt pris höjt (de är alltså fortfarande till salu). Genomsnittsprishöjningen var 6.5% (10% i sept 2011) och genomsnittssänkningen var –9% (-9% i sept 2011).
Min (helt ovetenskapliga och föga förvånande med tanke på medierapporteringen) slutsats är därmed att avmattningen som kunnat noteras i Malmö en tid vad gäller lägenhetspriser tycks ha fortsatt!
Överlag har den genomsnittliga prissänkningen hos de objekt som sänkts legat mkt konstant sedan 2008 på -9% och jag vet ej vad det beror på. Ökningen för de (få!) objekt som prishöjts är dock på en all-time-low just nu (6.5%). Vidare, att antalet lägenheter som är till salu har minskat jämfört med september har jag ingen förklaring till. Det kan vara min datainsamlingsmetod som påverkar denna siffra men det kan också vara ngt annat i görningen, t.ex. säsongsvariationer. Sedan hösten 2008 har denna siffra fluktuerat mellan 1000 och 1800.
THIS IS HANS BYSTRÖM'S BLOG ON ISSUES RELATED TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS. Some entries will be in Swedish and some in English, depending on the context.
januari 18, 2012
januari 02, 2012
Asinus asinum fricat
I have previosuly written about my worries for the ”Bermuda Triangle” of
private equity firms ------ CLOs ------ bankruptcies
See for instance “Hur mycket leveraged loan exponering finns det i det svenska finansiella systemet” from November 2008. In that article I stressed the problems private equity firms might face when people start to shun structured products such as CLOs, and the private equity firms, in turn, end up having trouble rolling over their loans. Or as I wrote, will we have the “1980s all over again”?
Well, now this scenario appears to have materialized itself! Many (leveraged) loans taken by private equity firms in order to finance their buy-outs prior to the crisis relied on a huge appetite of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). Now, many of these CLOs are about to the reach their maturity, i.e. they are being unwound, and this removes an important source of funding. In 2014, driven partly by new capital requirements on banks, almost no CLOs will remain, at least as new funding sources, and that will, I guess, put pressure on private equity deals.
Ecco, just another negative development in high finance and just another piece of bad news for the over-extended and over-borrowed part of the financial system!
private equity firms ------ CLOs ------ bankruptcies
See for instance “Hur mycket leveraged loan exponering finns det i det svenska finansiella systemet” from November 2008. In that article I stressed the problems private equity firms might face when people start to shun structured products such as CLOs, and the private equity firms, in turn, end up having trouble rolling over their loans. Or as I wrote, will we have the “1980s all over again”?
Well, now this scenario appears to have materialized itself! Many (leveraged) loans taken by private equity firms in order to finance their buy-outs prior to the crisis relied on a huge appetite of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). Now, many of these CLOs are about to the reach their maturity, i.e. they are being unwound, and this removes an important source of funding. In 2014, driven partly by new capital requirements on banks, almost no CLOs will remain, at least as new funding sources, and that will, I guess, put pressure on private equity deals.
Ecco, just another negative development in high finance and just another piece of bad news for the over-extended and over-borrowed part of the financial system!
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